Bisinomics

China 

The United States’ military operation in Venezuela, culminating in  the abduction and rendition to New York of its president, Nicolas  Maduro, is potentially an economic blow to China. Chinese credit  to the South American country amounts to around US$10 billion.  The South China Morning Post, quoting analysts, reported that  Caracas could challenge the very legitimacy of the debts. 

Credit: LSEG Datastream, January 2025 

Meanwhile, CNBC reports that China’s trade surplus continues to  surge as it enters 2026 with the positive balance passing US$1 trillion. Demand for Chinese goods continued their strong growth  despite US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China.

BYD, the long-time domestic market leader for electric vehicles,  outpaced its major international rival Tesla selling 2.25 million  battery EVs in 2025 – a 27.9% year-on-year increase – compared  with Tesla’s 1.64 million deliveries. Overall, BYD slowed its output  increase but still sold 4.3 million vehicles in 2025. Competition  from other countries in the EV sector is expected to intensify as  manufacturers around the world scale up production and  introduce new models. 

Credit: Company filings, Bloomberg 

The Rhodium Group think-tank calculated China’s economic  growth in 2025 to be 2.5% to 3% driven by a collapse in fixed-asset  investment in the second half of the year. The World Bank had  projected 4.5%. Industrial activity expanded only modestly and  retail sales inched upward at their slowest pace in years; demand is  not expanding as rapidly as previously; consumer caution lingers;  and private sector confidence has been flickering without igniting. 

South Korea 

The government in South Korea aims at 2% GDP growth in 2026,  betting on strategic high-tech industries and a recovery in  investment to drive a rebound, the Korea Herald reported. The  paper reported that foreign direct investment pledges to the  country hit a record high of US$36 billion in 2025.

South Korea’s Current Account Strong recent run of  31 months of surplus Record $ 12.2bn surplus in November 2025 surpluses 2024 total surplus $99.0bn +5.5% export growth. 

The paper flagged that South Korea posted its largest-ever current  account surplus for November, supported by strong exports amid  an upcycle in the semiconductor sector, citing data published by  the country’s central bank. The margin was US$12.24 billion  compared with US$6.81 billion in October. 

Samsung Electronics Co. reported a record operating profit of  US$13.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 – a 200% rise from the  previous year. This was driven by a super-cycle in the chip industry  where sales increased by 22.7%. Analysts say that Samsung is  expected to maintain its robust performance in 2026. Kim  Dong-won, a researcher at KB Securities Co., said Samsung  Electronics will enter the supply chain of HBM4 or High  bandwidth memory 4 for major tech companies, including Nvidia  Corp. and Google. 

Japan 

The Nikkei 225 stock index hit a new record in advance of  February’s election the Japan Times reported. However, the yield  on a 10-year government bond fell to 2.135% and the yen weakened  against the US dollar. Japan’s finance minister Satsuki Katayama  underscored concern to his American counterpart, treasury  secretary Scott Bessent, about “one-sided yen moves”. Bessent was  reported by the Japan Times to have “shared that understanding”.  Katayama said Japanese financial authorities have a “free hand” to  intervene. 

Meanwhile, Toyota Motor Corp. remained the world’s top-selling  automaker in 2025 for six years in a row according to Mainichi  Shimbun after the full-year figures released by Volkswagen AG fell  short of the Japanese giant’s achievement to November. Toyota  sold 10.32 million vehicles worldwide between January and  November while its German rival sold 8.98 million units over a  12-month period. 

Credit: The News Wheel, January 2026

Asahi Shimbun noted that Sony Honda Mobility Inc., a joint  venture between Sony Group Corp. and Honda Motors Co.,  unveiled a prototype of its new Afeela electric vehicle in Las Vegas  in January. 

India 

The Financial Times headlined: “India needs to import more  capital and export fewer workers,” adding that “despite strong  headline growth numbers, the country is slipping from the global  spotlight”. The headline introduced a report by Ruchir Sharma,  chair of Rockefeller International, saying that “flows of foreign  money into the country have dried up, suggesting outsiders  believe that the reported GDP growth rate of over 8 per cent masks  underlying weaknesses”. 

Sharma pointed out that India’s infamous ‘Licence Raj’ lingers  making it “prohibitively expensive to acquire land or hire and fire  workers”. Foreign investment in India is currently running at only  0.1% of GDP compared with over 4% in China and Vietnam.  

Sharma suggested that India’s ‘brain drain’ is “a loss of exactly the  skilled workers it needs to compete in advances fields” and said  “employment growth continues to be weak”. He reported that 38%  of graduates from the famed Indian Institutes of Technology went  without a single job offer domestically; also that one-third of the  US Silicon Valley’s tech workforce is now Indian.  

The Hindu reported that Mr Trump’s new Iran-related tariff threat  will have limited impact on India as trade between the two  countries has declined significantly. 

Indonesia 

The World Bank certified that the Indonesian economy expanded  by its projected annual target of 5% in the first nine months of  2025, because of strong investment and net exports. Its Indonesia  Economic Prospects report said “the country’s monetary and fiscal  policies have become more accommodative, with stimulus  measures boosting private credit and consumption while  maintaining fiscal discipline and moderate inflation”. 

The government revoked the operating licenses of 28 companies,  including a subsidiary of Jardine Matheson, following serious  flooding in northern Sumatra which left more than 1000 people  dead. While 22 of those companies are involved in forestry and  plantations, including the production of timber and palm oil, six 

are involved in mining of commodities such as nickel, products  vital for Indonesia's fast expanding economy. 

Saudi Arabia 

Credit: Saudi Vision 2030-‘The Line’, Saudi Vision  

2030 Channel 

Under its Vision 2030 programme, Saudi Arabia is fast diversifying  its economy into non-oil areas like tourism, retail and  construction. 

Oil remains core to its economic activities. Arab News projected  the country’s non-oil GDP growth will be 4.5% in 2026. S&P  Global expects new investments in non-oil segments will increase  fiscal and external deficits. 

ASEAN 

Trump’s hostility towards BRICS received a pushback, when nine  Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries –  Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,  Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam – expressed their readiness to  use a future BRICS currency.

BRICS banknote, as imagined by watcher.guru