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Bisinomics

The United States’ military operation in Venezuela, culminating in the abduction and rendition to New York of its president, Nicolas Maduro, is potentially an economic blow to China. Chinese credit to the South American country amounts to around US$10 billion. The South China Morning Post, quoting analysts, reported that Caracas could challenge the very legitimacy of the debts.

6-minute read

Iran 
International crude oil and natural gas prices surged sharply after  Iran – as a tactical response to Israel and the United States’  military attacks – choked the movement of non-Iranian vessels  through the Strait of Hormuz. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that in 2025  around 20 million barrels of crude oil and related products passed  through the 100-mile stretch of water daily, equal to about 25  percent of the world’s seaborne oil traffic. 

The IEA also calculated that about 19 percent of global liquefied  natural gas (LNG) is shipped through this waterway. Revenues of  major exporters, such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar were  thus significantly affected. The latter, the world’s second-largest  exporter of LNG, announced a production halt at its 77 million  tons per annum facility and declared force majeure on shipments. 

Countries dependent on energy from overseas, especially Asian  nations east of the Gulf, such as India, the world’s third largest  importer – were not only burdened by a steep hike in prices but  confronted by a potential short-term shortage, especially of LNG. 

Iran, while being ceaselessly pounded by bombs, missiles and  drones, continued to fulfil its commitments until its gas field in  South Pars, one of the world’s largest, was struck by Israel. 

Neighbouring Iraq, which depended on supplies from the field,  was the immediate sufferer. Iran retaliated for the damage to  South Pars by hitting an industrial site in Ras Laffan in Qatar. 
Iranian oil flows were mainly directed towards China – the world’s  biggest importer. According to trade data analyst Kpler, it was  continuing to receive 1.25 million barrels a day. China pressed Iran  not to disrupt energy movement through the Strait of Hormuz.  Beijing had already turned to Moscow to replace shipments from  Venezuela, stopped since the ouster of its president Nicolas  Maduro in a commando operation ordered by US President  Donald Trump in January. 

One of the consequences of the blitz on Iran was food prices fast  approaching a level where poorer families were finding  consumption unaffordable. Iranian media quoted bakers and  grocers as saying advance payments made by wealthy customers  were enabling them to extend credits to others for bread and meat.  Meanwhile, a flight of capital from Iran accelerated. Central Bank  of Iran figures suggested more money left the country than  entered it from its trade surplus. 

The run-up to Nowruz, the Persian New Year holiday, on 20 March  usually sees an economic bustle in Iran with the buying of  presents, new clothes and widespread festivities. This year, with  Iranians fearing to venture out of their homes because of the  Israeli and US bombardment, retail came to a standstill, thereby  delivering another blow to Iran’s fiscal well-being.

Gulf Cooperation Council 

The Qatar-based television news network Al Jazeera quoted an  associate professor of politics and international relations at Zayed  University in Dubai, Khaled Almezaini, as saying, ‘Disruptions to  aviation, tourism, shipping routes and energy exports combined  with higher insurance premiums and freight costs mean the region  is likely losing hundreds of millions of dollars per day in economic  activity.’ 

Despite aggressive diversification in recent decades, a large  proportion of the GDPs of GCC member countries Qatar, Kuwait,  Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman  are founded on oil and gas production. All have faced a barrage of  retaliatory drones and missiles from Iran, which have caused  destruction in varying degrees. The first three are particularly  exposed to Iran choking off the Strait of Hormuz. 

The short-term impact of Shia Iran hitting out at Sunni Arab states  is a throttling of their vital energy exports. In the medium term,  foreigners from the world over who have been attracted to the area  as an investment destination, a business hub, a place of residence  (perhaps to escape paying taxes in their countries of origin) or a  sandy riviera may now think twice about its charm and safety. An  analyst from the UAE at an International Institute for Strategic  Studies (IISS) seminar in London felt maintaining US military  bases on their territories could be up for review as a long-term  peace formula with Iran. That would demand mutual trust, which  has presently plummeted. 

Malaysia 

Some Southeast Asian destinations are feeling the pinch of air  flight cancellations and rising prices because of the war in West  Asia. But others, such as Malaysia, may be better positioned to  weather the storm, even capitalise on it. 

Thailand and Indonesia – including the much sought-after resort  of Bali – have been among the most vulnerable to the shock.  European visitors to these countries preferred to shy away because  of longer flights triggered by planes having to avoid the airspace of  the conflict zone. 

But Malaysia is different. European tourists, who account for only  15% of its trade, stay longer and spend more. Yet, this could be  offset by strong demand from East Asia, India and ASEAN  countries. 'We are in a sweet spot at the moment, very much like  Singapore,’ Nigel Wong, president of the Malaysian Association of  Tour and Travel Agents, told the Singaporean news channel CNA.

Japan 
Signage at a gas station in Kyodo Japan reads ‘Sorry, out of gasoline because of  Trump’. Photo: Kyodo News 

The crude oil crunch compelled the Japanese government to roll  out gasoline subsidies, after forecourt prices reached an  unprecedented high. Japan Times reported that snack maker  Yamayoshi Seika had stopped producing six of its items, notably  its flagship Wasabeef potato chips, because manufacturing these  required heavy oil usage and oil was in short supply.

By Editorial Staff

Our dedicated team of journalists and editors work tirelessly to bring you the most accurate and insightful news coverage. With a passion for storytelling and a commitment to journalistic integrity, our team strives to keep you informed about the latest developments shaping our world.

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Bisinomics

June 2026

India Narendra Modi has advised Indians not to travel abroad for  holidays and weddings. He also asked people to work from home  and use public transport. India is the world’s third-largest importer of oil. It faces a  ballooning economic challenge because of the sharp increase in  energy prices and an uncomfortably low level of reserves caused  by reduced supplies from the Persian Gulf following the virtual  closure of the Strait of Hormuz. ‘We must curb our use of petrol and diesel,’ Modi said in a  speech. ‘In cities with metro lines, we should use the metro  wherever possible… We must also place a strong emphasis on  saving foreign exchange.’ As Indians braced themselves for a  further escalation in energy prices, Modi’s critics mocked him for  not practising what he was preaching by taking off on a  five-nation overseas trip. They said hands-on economic  management was the national priority. The Financial Times reported that India ‘imported $174 billion of  oil and gas last year, with two-thirds of natural gas and half of  crude oil imports [coming] from the Gulf’. India has returned to  sourcing oil from Russia – after obsequiously obeying orders  from United States President Donald Trump not to, before Mr  Trump partially waived sanctions in March. The Indian cabinet,  meanwhile, approved expanded gas production from coal on an  urgent basis. Shortage of cooking gas has disrupted homes and  debilitated hotel and restaurant businesses.  Commuters crowd public transport in India as rising fuel costs and supply disruptions intensify pressure on households and businesses. Photo: EPA The FT reported that ‘higher import prices have hurt the Indian  currency and knocked investor confidence’. It added that ‘the  rupee has been among Asia’s worst-performing currencies since  hostilities began in the Gulf… Economists are concerned over the  war’s impact on India’s balance of payments, already under  pressure from foreign investors selling Indian stocks at the fastest  pace on record… As the Gulf crisis drags on, economists are  revising down their estimates for growth in India.’ Kazakhstan In contrast, Kazakhstan has since the start of the Iran war  experienced an appreciation in its currency, the tenge. Oil-rich,  the country has benefitted from the steep upward revision in  crude prices, leading to the strengthening of the currency. This  trend is likely to continue until international trade in oil  stabilises. The oil sector accounts for over 40% of the Kazakh  government’s revenues. Kazakhstan, though, is dependent on electricity from Russia. It  aims to exit from dependence on Russian imports by 2027, the  Times of Central Asia reported, following a restatement of the  goal by the country’s deputy energy minister, Sungat  Yessimkhanov. Rising global crude prices have strengthened Kazakhstan’s energy sector, even as the country faces domestic electricity challenges. Photo: Kazakhstan government website It is likely to fulfil that objective only if homes remain heated and  industry avoids shortages during peak demand. Kazakhstan has  had a power deficit because of years of underinvestment, rising  demand, ageing thermal plants and uneven regional output,  according to the same newspaper.Uzbekistan Another Central Asian state, Uzbekistan, posted healthy activity  in its car industry, selling 121,601 vehicles between January and  April of this year, as per figures released by UzAvtosanoat and  reported by UZ Daily. UzAuto Motors, the largest automaker in Uzbekistan,  maintained its dominant position, selling 58,168 vehicles. The  company manufactures a wide range of models under various  brands, including American General Motors’ Chevrolet. Chinese  brands and Kia of South Korea are also noticeable in the  Uzbekistan market.  Indonesia The energy crunch has affected oil-producing Indonesia because  its demand outpaces its crude output, so it is planning to expand  its nuclear power capacity. Significantly, director-general Alexey  Likhachev of Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom  was in Jakarta to meet the Indonesian president, Prabowo  Subianto, to discuss bilateral cooperation. Indonesia is exploring expanded nuclear energy  cooperation as Asian governments search for long-term energy security solutions. Photo: SouthEast Asian Gallery Bernama reported Likhachev as saying Rosatom was ready to  offer Indonesia ‘a comprehensive approach to developing its  national nuclear programme, including both large-scale nuclear  power projects and small modular reactors and floating power  units’. Malaysia In neighbouring Malaysia, economic growth for the first quarter  of the 2026 financial year was 5.4%, exceeding the prediction of  5.3%. The number had moderated from the 6.3% enlargement in  the previous quarter. The Star quoted the chief statistician of Bank Negara Malaysia,  Datuk Seri Mohd Uzir Mahidin, as saying ‘Malaysia’s economy  continued to expand in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting the  underlying resilience and stable growth conditions amid a  challenging global environment.’ The country continued to record a surplus in its current account  balance for the same period amounting to RM15.2 billion,  equivalent to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was  significantly higher than RM2.7 billion in Q4 of 2025. Mahidin  said this was attributed to, as The Star put it, ‘sustained external  demand for Malaysia’s exports alongside improving services  sector performance’. Singapore In the Chandler Good Government Index, Singapore retained its  top position for a fourth consecutive year. The seven pillars of  evaluation are: leadership and foresight, robust laws and policies,  strong institutions, financial stewardship, attractive marketplace,  global influence and reputation and helping people rise.  Singapore was ranked first in all categories except robust laws  and policies and global influence and reputation.However, as Singapore Business spelled out, Singapore Airlines  (SIA) suffered a 57% year-on-year slump in net profit to $1.18  billion in the financial year ending 31 March last, because of its  shareholding in loss-making Air India. SIA suspended services to Dubai and Jeddah in February as a  result of the war in the Gulf and deferred the introduction of  flights to Riyadh until September 2026. The suspension of flights  to Dubai has been extended to 2 August. South Korea Samsung, South Korea’s giant electronics firm, faced a general  strike from 21 May. The strike threatened losses running into the  tens of trillions of won, not to mention semiconductor  production chaos and supply chain instability, Business Korea  reported. After the failure of labour-management negotiations,  Koo Yun-cheol, deputy prime minister and minister of economy  and finance, wrote on X: ‘We will continue supporting resolution  through principled negotiations under any circumstances.’ From aviation to semiconductor manufacturing, major  Asian corporations are facing mounting uncertainty from  supply chain and energy disruptions. Japan A group of lawmakers in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party  submitted a proposal to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to review  the country’s Companies Act, which would require shareholders  to own at least 30,000 shares in an enterprise to call extraordinary meetings or enter items on the agenda. 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Bisinomics

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