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Bisinomics

The United States’ military operation in Venezuela, culminating in the abduction and rendition to New York of its president, Nicolas Maduro, is potentially an economic blow to China. Chinese credit to the South American country amounts to around US$10 billion. The South China Morning Post, quoting analysts, reported that Caracas could challenge the very legitimacy of the debts.

6-minute read

Iran 
International crude oil and natural gas prices surged sharply after  Iran – as a tactical response to Israel and the United States’  military attacks – choked the movement of non-Iranian vessels  through the Strait of Hormuz. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that in 2025  around 20 million barrels of crude oil and related products passed  through the 100-mile stretch of water daily, equal to about 25  percent of the world’s seaborne oil traffic. 

The IEA also calculated that about 19 percent of global liquefied  natural gas (LNG) is shipped through this waterway. Revenues of  major exporters, such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar were  thus significantly affected. The latter, the world’s second-largest  exporter of LNG, announced a production halt at its 77 million  tons per annum facility and declared force majeure on shipments. 

Countries dependent on energy from overseas, especially Asian  nations east of the Gulf, such as India, the world’s third largest  importer – were not only burdened by a steep hike in prices but  confronted by a potential short-term shortage, especially of LNG. 

Iran, while being ceaselessly pounded by bombs, missiles and  drones, continued to fulfil its commitments until its gas field in  South Pars, one of the world’s largest, was struck by Israel. 

Neighbouring Iraq, which depended on supplies from the field,  was the immediate sufferer. Iran retaliated for the damage to  South Pars by hitting an industrial site in Ras Laffan in Qatar. 
Iranian oil flows were mainly directed towards China – the world’s  biggest importer. According to trade data analyst Kpler, it was  continuing to receive 1.25 million barrels a day. China pressed Iran  not to disrupt energy movement through the Strait of Hormuz.  Beijing had already turned to Moscow to replace shipments from  Venezuela, stopped since the ouster of its president Nicolas  Maduro in a commando operation ordered by US President  Donald Trump in January. 

One of the consequences of the blitz on Iran was food prices fast  approaching a level where poorer families were finding  consumption unaffordable. Iranian media quoted bakers and  grocers as saying advance payments made by wealthy customers  were enabling them to extend credits to others for bread and meat.  Meanwhile, a flight of capital from Iran accelerated. Central Bank  of Iran figures suggested more money left the country than  entered it from its trade surplus. 

The run-up to Nowruz, the Persian New Year holiday, on 20 March  usually sees an economic bustle in Iran with the buying of  presents, new clothes and widespread festivities. This year, with  Iranians fearing to venture out of their homes because of the  Israeli and US bombardment, retail came to a standstill, thereby  delivering another blow to Iran’s fiscal well-being.

Gulf Cooperation Council 

The Qatar-based television news network Al Jazeera quoted an  associate professor of politics and international relations at Zayed  University in Dubai, Khaled Almezaini, as saying, ‘Disruptions to  aviation, tourism, shipping routes and energy exports combined  with higher insurance premiums and freight costs mean the region  is likely losing hundreds of millions of dollars per day in economic  activity.’ 

Despite aggressive diversification in recent decades, a large  proportion of the GDPs of GCC member countries Qatar, Kuwait,  Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman  are founded on oil and gas production. All have faced a barrage of  retaliatory drones and missiles from Iran, which have caused  destruction in varying degrees. The first three are particularly  exposed to Iran choking off the Strait of Hormuz. 

The short-term impact of Shia Iran hitting out at Sunni Arab states  is a throttling of their vital energy exports. In the medium term,  foreigners from the world over who have been attracted to the area  as an investment destination, a business hub, a place of residence  (perhaps to escape paying taxes in their countries of origin) or a  sandy riviera may now think twice about its charm and safety. An  analyst from the UAE at an International Institute for Strategic  Studies (IISS) seminar in London felt maintaining US military  bases on their territories could be up for review as a long-term  peace formula with Iran. That would demand mutual trust, which  has presently plummeted. 

Malaysia 

Some Southeast Asian destinations are feeling the pinch of air  flight cancellations and rising prices because of the war in West  Asia. But others, such as Malaysia, may be better positioned to  weather the storm, even capitalise on it. 

Thailand and Indonesia – including the much sought-after resort  of Bali – have been among the most vulnerable to the shock.  European visitors to these countries preferred to shy away because  of longer flights triggered by planes having to avoid the airspace of  the conflict zone. 

But Malaysia is different. European tourists, who account for only  15% of its trade, stay longer and spend more. Yet, this could be  offset by strong demand from East Asia, India and ASEAN  countries. 'We are in a sweet spot at the moment, very much like  Singapore,’ Nigel Wong, president of the Malaysian Association of  Tour and Travel Agents, told the Singaporean news channel CNA.

Japan 
Signage at a gas station in Kyodo Japan reads ‘Sorry, out of gasoline because of  Trump’. Photo: Kyodo News 

The crude oil crunch compelled the Japanese government to roll  out gasoline subsidies, after forecourt prices reached an  unprecedented high. Japan Times reported that snack maker  Yamayoshi Seika had stopped producing six of its items, notably  its flagship Wasabeef potato chips, because manufacturing these  required heavy oil usage and oil was in short supply.

By Editorial Staff

Our dedicated team of journalists and editors work tirelessly to bring you the most accurate and insightful news coverage. With a passion for storytelling and a commitment to journalistic integrity, our team strives to keep you informed about the latest developments shaping our world.

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